The Department of Finance has published Future Forty, a comprehensive, long-term analysis examining how major global and domestic trends may shape Ireland’s economy and public finances out to 2065. The report assesses the long-term impacts of demographic change, climate action, digitalisation, deglobalisation, housing constraints, healthcare demand, and potential future EU expansion. The analysis is conducted on a no-policy-change basis.

Future Forty models over 2,000 possible outcomes, illustrating a wide range of potential economic and fiscal trajectories. While results vary from positive to challenging, the analysis will act as a strategic foresight tool Government, intended to support evidence-based, long-term policy planning.

Key Findings include:

• Economic growth expected to slow significantly over the coming decades, with the Central Scenario projecting growth of 0.6% by the 2060s.
• Public finances face sustained pressure, driven by an ageing population, decarbonisation costs, slowing productivity, and falling corporation tax receipts.
• Under the Central Scenario:

• Corporation tax receipts are projected to fall sharply, from 8% of GNI* in 2025 to 4.5% by 2040.
• Total exchequer revenue declines from 34.5% to 31.6% of GNI* by 2065.
• Annual deficits rise to 7.9% of GNI* and national debt could reach 148% of GNI* by 2065.
• Despite these pressures, the report notes that Ireland’s projected debt burden would remain lower than many advanced economies, including the UK, US, France and Germany.
• The assessment highlights 2025–2037 as a critical window for Government to strengthen economic resilience, address structural challenges, and implement reforms to mitigate long-term fiscal pressures.
• Beyond the late 2030s, demographic and expenditure pressures are expected to intensify, limiting the State’s ability to respond to future shocks.

 Dublin Chamber will continue to engage with Government on the policy reforms required to maintain Ireland’s competitiveness and ensure the economy is equipped to meet the challenges outlined in the report.

You can access the full report here.